Polar amplification of climate change in the past and future

PLEASE NOTE:  Application deadline date 08 Jan 2024.  Applications are no longer being accepted for this project

Project Overview 

Polar amplification¾where enhanced warming in polar regions outpaces global temperature change¾is poorly understood. Using geological evidence, numerical climate models and theory, this project will explore why polar amplification sometimes affects the Arctic, sometimes the Antarctic and sometimes both poles. Crucial projections of polar amplification for future climate change will be made.

Project Description 

Over the last century climate change has been fastest in polar regions, with warming in the Arctic occurring three times faster than the global average. This phenomenon, termed polar amplification, is also a robust feature during periods of climate change in the geological past, although the relative amounts of polar amplification in the Northern and Southern poles varied.

However, we still do not know which processes contribute most to polar amplification, nor why it affects the northern and southern hemispheres differently during different geological periods. Processes including increased local climate feedbacks in polar regions, ocean and atmospheric circulation, and the increasing fraction of poleward heat transported through water vapour in a warming world may all have contributed to polar amplification in different relative amounts at different times.

In this project, you will interpret geological archives using numerical climate models (e.g., Goodwin and Williams, 2023) and theory to quantify which processes dominate polar amplification, explain why the Arctic and Antarctic respond differently during different geological eras and make future projections. Several geological intervals and problems will be explored, such as: the initiation of Antarctic glaciation; polar responses to the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum warming event; Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles; and the potential for snowball Earth inception. The future polar responses during the Anthropocene will be explored over many timescales. The Arctic and Antarctic regions are particularly susceptible to climate change, and the consequences of either polar ice melt, permafrost melting, or polar ecosystem reorganization have global repercussions.