Dr Holly Ayres

Research Interests

Atmosphere - sea ice - ocean interactions, Southern Ocean dynamics, polar climate, polar amplification, polar atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections, North Atlantic climate.
Marine Physics Engagement Champion, interested in building ocean science education and supporting science-progressive policy.

Awards

Challenger ECR Excellence in Marine Science Fellowship 2026.

Publications

See Research Gate.

Ayres H.C., Ferreira, D., Wong, C., Kjellsson, J., Odalen, M., (2026, submitted) Robust Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Processes of the Weddell Sea Polynya in CMIP6 Models. Journal of climate.

Ayres, H. C., & Oltmanns, M. (2026). Freshwater-induced surface cooling of the subpolar North Atlantic in a large-ensemble, high-resolution, coupled model. Geophysical Research Letters, 53, e2026GL122236. https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL122236

Narayanan, A., Ayres, H., England, M.H., Haumann, A., Mazloff, M. R., Silvano, A.,  Spira, T., Zhou, S., Naveira Garabato, A.C. (2026). Compound Drivers of Antarctic Sea Ice Loss, Science Advances. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aeb0166

Zhou, L., Ayres, H., Gülk, B., Narayanan, A., de Lavergne, C., Ödalen, M., Silvano, A., Wang, X., Lindeman, M., and Steiger, N. (2026). Review article: Weddell Sea Polynya formation, cessation and climatic impacts, The Cryosphere, 20, 285–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-285-2026 

Josey, S.A., Meijers, A.J.S., Blaker, A.T. Ayres, H. C, et al., (2024) Record-low Antarctic sea ice in 2023 increased ocean heat loss and storms. Nature 636, 635–639. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08368-y 

Ayres, H. C., Ferreira, D., Park. W., & Kjellsson, J. (2024). A comparison of the atmospheric response to the Weddell Sea Polynya in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) of varying resolutions. EGU Weather and Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-805-2024

Sallée, J.B., Abrahamsen, E.P., Auger, M., Ayres, H., et al., (2023), The Southern Ocean Carbon and Heat Impact on Climate (SO-CHIC) programme: processes and long-term change, Philosophical Transactions. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0056

Ayres, H. C., Screen, J. A., Blockley, E. W., & Bracegirdle, T. J. (2022). The Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Response to Antarctic Sea Ice Loss, Journal of Climate, 35(14), 4665-4685. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0918.1.

Smith, D. M., Eade, R., Andrews, M. B., Ayres, H., et al. (2022) Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss. Nature Communications, 13 (1). 727. ISSN 2041-1723. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y.

Ayres, H. C., & Screen, J. A. (2019). Multimodel Analysis of the Atmospheric Response to Antarctic Sea Ice Loss at Quadrupled CO2. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(16), 9861–9869. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083653.

 

APECS Diversity Equity and Inclusion Project Group Co-Lead, 2025 - 2027.
Antarctic Science Board APECS International representative, 2026 - 2028.

Current Projects

My most recent work has been as the NOC lead for the NERC funded DIMSUM project, assessing the North Atlantic interactions with the European and global climate, with a specific focus on upper level ocean mixing and UK precipitation changes. Recently, I have also joined the ARIA funded SORTED project, to assess the impacts of Greenland meltwater and model resolution on North Atlantic circulation. I currently supervise Masters and PhD student projects on both North Atlantic circulation and Antarctic sea ice, both within NOC and with international partners. 

Past Projects

Before joining NOC, I worked as a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Reading, assessing climate interactions of the Weddell Sea Polynya as part of the European SO-CHIC project.

I did my PhD at the University of Exeter, completed in 2021, on the Climate response to Antarctic sea ice loss, where I also worked as part of the NERC funded Real Projections project, and the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Modelling Intercomparison Project (PAMIP). 

My prior studies were in Physical Oceanography, with a focus on Southern Ocean mixing as part of the NERC funded SMILES Project.