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Dr Joanne Williams

Job Title
Research Scientist
Site
Liverpool

Biography

Research interests

As part of the Sea Level group at NOC, I research sea-level, tides and surges, seeking to understand coastal flood risk around the world. For example, I work with the UK Met Office and Environment Agency to monitor recent tide gauge data, and the performance of the operational storm surge model, using the National Tidal and Sea Level Facility. I also work closely with the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level , whose focus is on high-quality data for long term climate studies of sea-level. 

 

Storm surge refers to the excess sea-level that is caused by weather systems. Storm surges can be very hazardous flood events, with low air pressure and persistent winds causing the peak tide to be more than a metre higher than usual, so much further inland, and waves act on top of this. Recent UK events are summarised in the State of the UK Climate report. As the climate changes and sea-level rises, we need to estimate future risk of combined extreme weather events. For some applications we need to consider scenarios that are unlikely (low probability) but would have very severe impacts (high risk), and an example of this was this global study led by Sveta Jevrejeva. That showed that while we do expect weather patterns and storminess to change with the climate, in most places the biggest change to extreme coastal flood events will come from sea-level rise.

 

In the UK, where we have very large tidal range and shallow seas, one of the effects of a storm can be to change the timing of high tide as well as the maximum water level. In analysing past events from tide-gauge records we have to be very careful how we separate these effects. Rather than just take the difference between continuously measured water level and predicted tide (the non-tidal residual) we sometimes use “skew-surge”, the difference between peak observation and prediction, even if these are at a different time. This measure is less dependent on the coincidence of tide and storm, so it helps us consider what would happen if a similar storm fell in a different phase of the moon.

 

Figure showing UK storm surges from 2 contrasting events, one with a high surge in the North Sea, the other with a surge on the west coast. (a,b) Analysis chart at 1200 UTC 21 December 2023 (storm Pia) and 1800 UTC 27 December 2023 (storm Gerrit). (c,d) Skew surge from tide gauge observations. (e,f) Skew surge from storm surge model of storms Pia and Gerrit. Pia caused high skew surges on the east coast, in the North Sea. Gerrit was high on the west coast and lower levels than the predicted tide on the east. The model used here is the NEMO surge and tide operational model (Furner et al., 2016), and it shows patterns of extreme skew surges in open water that correspond well with observed extremes.

 

 

Tide gauges have been operated for hundreds of years, and there are still records of tides that are recorded only in hand-written books or mechanically-drawn paper charts. With help from volunteers on Zooniverse, we've digitised millions of records from Liverpool and Hilbre island on the Wirral. Once the record is post-processed and analysed it will contribute to the world-wide collection of tidal data. One use for this was in checking a model of "Storm Ulysses" from 1903, as a test of newly gathered weather data. Understanding past weather events helps us in estimating future flood risk.

 

Example of a tidal ledger from 1867. There is a preprinted table, with columns of times every 15 minutes, and hand written entries of tidal heights in feet and inches.

 

Comparison of instrument channels at Prickly Bay, Grenada in prototype auto-QC code

In order to make easier use of tide-gauge data, I've worked on an automatic quality control system as part of the Commonwealth Marine Economies programme. I've also worked on global tide and surge reanalysis with Kevin Horsburgh on the Atlantos project.

With Chris Hughes and Mark Tamisiea I studied bottom pressure records and their use in measuring sea-level, mass changes in the ocean, and ocean circulation. Our spectral maps of bottom pressure and sea-level from ocean models are now available.

Spectrum of ocean bottom pressure

We extended the Weighing the Oceans calculation to incorporate more records and to analyse errors. You can watch some animations explaining the mass changes in the ocean.

The work on weighing the ocean has highlighted to us again that bottom pressure recorders are subject to non-linear drift, that can be at least as great as annual cycles or long-term trends. We have found that this drift can be better characterised by proper accounting of known annual cycles, and are working on techniques to improve this. You can get our code from the PSMSL website. We are also interested in alternative techniques to measure bottom pressure, such as combining thermosteric moorings and satellite altimetry.

I’m also interested in using global ocean model data, from for example the NEMO or OCCAM models, to analyse bottom pressure and sea-level where no records exist. This has led to some interesting findings about the comparison of tide-gauge records (necessarily at the shore) and altimetry (usually some distance away). We have found that whether it is valid to use these interchangeably is dependent on latitude and the time-scales of interest. More details can be found here.

 

Career

I have worked at the National Oceanography Centre (formerly the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory) since 2008, mostly part-time. My PhD, in Thin-film Rimming Flows was from the University of Nottingham, with David Riley, Stephen Hibberd and Henry Power. Prior to that I was employed at Malvern in research on aircraft communication systems, and have a maths MSc from Bristol and BA from Oxford.

Roles Provided

Researcher into sea-level, tides and storm surges.

I also serve as a Topic Editor on the subject of tides and sea-level, for the EGU open access journal Ocean Science.

Profile photo

Publications

Authors

Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481. 2026 The UK Storm Surges of 2025. Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, 39pp. (National Oceanography Centre Internal Document, No. 32)

Publication year

2026

Publication type

Monograph

Authors

Kendon, Mike; Doherty, Amy; Hollis, Dan; Emily, Carlisle; Stephen, Packman; Matthews, Andrew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5210-2453; Jevrejeva, Svetlana ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9490-4665; Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Garforth, Judith; Sparks, Tim. 2025 State of the UK Climate 2024. International Journal of Climatology, 45 (S1). 1-72. 10.1002/joc.70010

Publication year

2025

Publication type

Article

Authors

Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481. 2025 The UK Storm Surges of 2024. Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, 43pp. (National Oceanography Centre Internal Document, No. 30)

Publication year

2025

Publication type

Monograph

Authors

Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; O'Neill, Clare. 2024 Atlas of Tides, North West European Shelf. Volume I: Tide only model. 4th October 2024. NOC Internal Report No. 27. Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, 136pp. (National Oceanography Centre Internal Document, No. 27)

Publication year

2024

Publication type

Monograph

Authors

Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; O'Neill, Clare. 2024 Atlas of Tides, North West European Shelf. Volume II: Tide and surge. 4th October 2024. NOC Internal Report No. 28. Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, 136pp. (National Oceanography Centre Internal Document, No. 28)

Publication year

2024

Publication type

Monograph

Authors

Kendon, Mike; Doherty, Amy; Hollis, Dan; Emily, Carlisle; Stephen, Packman; McCarthy, Mark; Jevrejeva, Svetlana ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9490-4665; Matthews, Andrew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5210-2453; Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Garforth, Judith; Sparks, Tim. 2024 State of the UK Climate 2023. International Journal of Climatology, 44 (S1). 1-121. 10.1002/joc.8553

Publication year

2024

Publication type

Article

Authors

Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481. 2024 The UK Storm Surges of 2023. Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, 33pp. (National Oceanography Centre Internal Document, No. 25)

Publication year

2024

Publication type

Monograph

Authors

Kendon, Mike; McCarthy, Mark; Jevrejeva, Svetlana ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9490-4665; Matthews, Andrew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5210-2453; Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Sparks, Tim; West, Fritha. 2023 State of the UK Climate 2022. International Journal of Climatology, 43 (S1). 1-83. 10.1002/joc.8167

Publication year

2023

Publication type

Article

Publication year

2023

Publication type

Article

Authors

Hawkins, Ed; Brohan, Philip; Burgess, Samantha N.; Burt, Stephen; Compo, Gilbert P.; Gray, Suzanne L.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Hersbach, Hans; Kuijjer, Kiki; Martínez-Alvarado, Oscar; McColl, Chesley; Schurer, Andrew P.; Slivinski, Laura; Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481. 2023 Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23 (4). 1465-1482. 10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023

Publication year

2023

Publication type

Article

Publication year

2023

Publication type

Article

Authors

Zemunik, Petra; Denamiel, Cléa; Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Vilibić, Ivica. 2022 High-frequency sea-level extremes: Global correlations to synoptic atmospheric patterns. Weather and Climate Extremes, 38, 100516. 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100516

Publication year

2022

Publication type

Article

Authors

Qu, Ying; Jevrejeva, Svetlana ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9490-4665; Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Moore, John C.. 2022 Drivers for seasonal variability in sea level around the China seas. Global and Planetary Change, 213, 103819. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103819

Publication year

2022

Publication type

Article

Authors

Matthews, Andrew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5210-2453; Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481. 2021 Rescuing historical sea level data using a citizen science platform. In: EGU General Assembly 2021, Online, 19-30 April 2021.

Publication year

2021

Publication type

Conference item

Authors

Moat, Ben ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8676-7779; Frajka-Williams, Eleanor ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8773-7838; Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Meinen, Chris. 2021 Can PIES (Pressure Inverted Echo Sounders) replace tall moorings to monitor the AMOC? In: EGU General Assembly 2021, Online, 19-30 April 2021.

Publication year

2021

Publication type

Conference item

Authors

Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481. 2021 Salinity effects on pressure-based tide gauges in a macro-tidal estuary. In: EGU General Assembly 2021, Online, 19-30 April 2021.

Publication year

2021

Publication type

Conference item

Publication year

2020

Publication type

Article

Authors

Pérez Gómez, Begoña; Aarup, Thorkild; Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Illigner, Julia; Matthews, Andrew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5210-2453; Mitchell, Bill; Rickards, Lesley; Stone, Peter; Widlansky, Matthew; Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481. 2020 Quality control of in situ sea level observations: a review and progress towards automated quality control. Paris, France, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO, 71pp. (IOC Manuals and Guides, 83 Vol.1)

Publication year

2020

Publication type

Monograph

Authors

Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Matthews, Andrew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5210-2453. 2020 Automating tide gauge quality control. [Poster] In: EGU General Assembly 2020, 4–8 May 2020. EGU General Assembly.

Publication year

2020

Publication type

Conference item

Authors

Jevrejeva, Svetlana ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9490-4665; Matthews, Andrew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5210-2453; Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481. 2019 Development of a coastal data hub for stakeholder access in the Caribbean region. Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, 27pp. (National Oceanography Centre Research and Consultancy Report, 67)

Publication year

2019

Publication type

Monograph

Authors

Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Matthews, Andrew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5210-2453; Jevrejeva, Svetlana ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9490-4665. 2019 Development of an automatic tide gauge processing system. Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, 26pp. (National Oceanography Centre Research and Consultancy Report, 64)

Publication year

2019

Publication type

Monograph

Publication year

2019

Publication type

Article

Authors

Ponte, Rui M.; Carson, Mark; Cirano, Mauro; Domingues, Catia M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5100-4595; Jevrejeva, Svetlana ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9490-4665; Marcos, Marta; Mitchum, Gary; van de Wal, R. S. W.; Woodworth, Philip L.; Ablain, Michaël; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Ballu, Valérie; Becker, Mélanie; Benveniste, Jérôme; Birol, Florence; Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Cazenave, Anny; De Mey-Frémaux, P.; Durand, Fabien; Ezer, Tal; Fu, Lee-Lueng; Fukumori, Ichiro; Gordon, Kathy; Gravelle, Médéric; Griffies, Stephen M.; Han, Weiqing; Hibbert, Angela ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2529-0190; Hughes, Chris W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9355-0233; Idier, Déborah; Kourafalou, Villy H.; Little, Christopher M.; Matthews, Andrew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5210-2453; Melet, Angélique; Merrifield, Mark; Meyssignac, Benoit; Minobe, Shoshiro; Penduff, Thierry; Picot, Nicolas; Piecuch, Christopher; Ray, Richard D.; Rickards, Lesley; Santamaría-Gómez, Alvaro; Stammer, Detlef; Staneva, Joanna; Testut, Laurent; Thompson, Keith; Thompson, Philip; Vignudelli, Stefano; Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Williams, Simon D. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4123-4973; Wöppelmann, Guy; Zanna, Laure; Zhang, Xuebin. 2019 Towards comprehensive observing and modeling systems for monitoring and predicting regional to coastal sea level. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6. 10.3389/fmars.2019.00437

Publication year

2019

Publication type

Article

Authors

Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Saulter, Andy; O'Neill, Clare; Brown, Jenny ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3894-4651; Horsburgh, Kevin ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4803-9919. 2018 A reassessment of the UK operational surge forecasting procedure. Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, 28pp. (National Oceanography Centre Research and Consultancy Report, 62)

Publication year

2018

Publication type

Monograph

Publication year

2018

Publication type

Article

Publication year

2018

Publication type

Article

Authors

Hughes, Chris W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9355-0233; Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Hibbert, Angela ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2529-0190; Boening, Carmen; Oram, James. 2016 A Rossby whistle: a resonant basin mode observed in the Caribbean Sea. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (13). 7036-7043. 10.1002/2016GL069573

Publication year

2016

Publication type

Article

Authors

Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Horsburgh, Kevin ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4803-9919; Williams, Jane; Proctor, Robert. 2016 Tide and skew surge independence: new insights for flood risk. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (12). 6410-6417. 10.1002/2016GL069522

Publication year

2016

Publication type

Article

Authors

Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Hughes, Chris W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9355-0233; Tamisiea, Mark. 2015 Detecting trends in bottom pressure measured using a tall mooring and altimetry. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 120 (7). 5216-5232. 10.1002/2015JC010955

Publication year

2015

Publication type

Article

Authors

Hughes, Chris W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9355-0233; Bingham, Rory J.; Roussenov, Vassil; Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Woodworth, Philip L.. 2015 The effect of Mediterranean exchange flow on European time mean sea level. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (2). 466-474. 10.1002/2014GL062654

Publication year

2015

Publication type

Article

Publication year

2013

Publication type

Article

Authors

Hughes, Christopher W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9355-0233; Tamisiea, Mark E.; Bingham, Rory J.; Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481. 2012 Weighing the ocean: Using a single mooring to measure changes in the mass of the ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (17). L17602. 10.1029/2012GL052935

Publication year

2012

Publication type

Article

Authors

Hughes, Chris W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9355-0233; Tamisiea, Mark E.; Bingham, Rory J.; Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481. 2012 Weighing the ocean: How a single mooring in the mid-Pacific can monitor changes in ocean mass. In: European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Vienna, 22-27 Apr 2012. (Unpublished)

Publication year

2012

Publication type

Conference item

Authors

Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Hughes, Chris W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9355-0233. 2012 Coherence of off-shore steric height and island sea level. In: European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Vienna, 22-27 Apr 2012.

Publication year

2012

Publication type

Conference item

Publication year

2012

Publication type

Article

Authors

Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Hughes, Christopher ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9355-0233. 2011 Sea-level spectral maps. In: British Applied Mathematics Colloquium, Birmingham, April 2011. (Unpublished)

Publication year

2011

Publication type

Conference item

Authors

Williams, Joanne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-4481; Hughes, Christopher ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9355-0233; Bingham, Rory. 2009 North Atlantic circulation in a 1000 year climate model. [Poster] In: European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2009, Vienna, 19-24 April 2009. (Unpublished)

Publication year

2009

Publication type

Conference item